Russia, A Continuing Unifying Catalyst
by Dan Minutillo, Partner
International Trade Law
Global nation-state security alliances creating and promoting sanctions against Russia in response to the war with Ukraine will be strengthened in 2023. The United States, the European Union, England, Canada, Australia, and Japan have prospectively established various internal administrative agencies in their respective countries to promote unity and a singular purpose in sanctioning Russia for its conduct regarding Ukraine. Though, for the most part, individual country-promoted enforcement mechanisms led by the United States already exist for continuing long-term Russian accountability, there is a unity of purpose and resolve to work as a cooperative alliance to enhance regional stability.
Long after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, not only will this alliance endure, but the tangential benefits of this alliance will result in increased trade in defense articles, spare parts, components, and more robust munition supply chains for alliance members. More General Licenses that allow easier exportability of munitions now strictly controlled by the International Traffic in Arms Regulations and related global regimes will swiftly be instituted by concerned countries. More sales of defense articles will generate a revenue stream benefiting the producers and their associated countries, resulting in long-term incentives to continue to protect and defend their borders, thereby stabilizing global regions.
OVERSTOCKING WITH PURPOSE
Small countries’ stockpiling of advanced weaponry and participation in coordinated training exercises will follow the Finnish model in the future:
- Overstock warplanes;
- Overstock weaponry components and spare parts to ensure self-sufficiency;
- Purchase the most advanced weapons technology;
- Coordinate training exercises to ensure regional stability.
This will become the norm of alliance countries rather than the exception.
The NATO alliance is much more robust, unified, and steadfast now compared to the pre-Russia-Ukraine war era. More armaments, the exchange of more money, and the use of General Licenses for related components and technology to ease trade constraints among these allies will enhance business opportunities for countries in this alliance.
The United States is moving toward banning all exports of US-origin products and technology to Russia. Investment flows to Russia from alliance countries are becoming more restrictive, as is the extension of credit to Russian companies from alliance money sources. The common purpose of these restrictions is to squeeze Russia to benefit Ukraine’s resistance. Though the effect of these restrictive policies is happening now, the benefit to alliance countries will be long-lasting; more trade, less restrictive export policies, more joint military exercises, and better protection against invasion by Russia.
END USER STATEMENTS
To further ensure that weapons systems, components, and related technology will go from the producer to an allied country for its use and not be re-exported to a different country or other end-user, End User Statements and Letters of Further Assurances, staples in the trade industry should be executed by the importer/end user.
Further, alliance-coordinated procedures to help determine accountability for the improper transfer of these products must be created, and punishments for improper re-export must be severe. This accountability based on executed End User Statements will provide assurances to alliance trading partners that products will not get into the wrong hands, thereby creating a stable trading system to benefit only alliance countries.